Ionikos 2-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Ionikos take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ionikos host Lamia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ionikos's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lamia — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ionikos, 2 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 45% versus Lamia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 42% | Lamia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.11 xG and Lamia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.800 / defence 1.087 | Lamia attack 0.762 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. Data: 52 Ionikos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 38% | Draw 39% | Lamia 23%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | Lamia 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 20% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 38% | Draw 39% | Lamia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Ionikos 1.11 / Lamia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.800 / def 1.087 | Lamia attack 0.762 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Lamia xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Lamia kick off?
Ionikos vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Ionikos 2 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Ionikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Lamia part of?
Ionikos vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 38% chance of winning, Lamia a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ionikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): Ionikos 2W | Draws 1 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in?
Ionikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.80) and Lamia's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.63
39%
2.58
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.94
0.83
Lamia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.83 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos's recent record stands at 18W 17D 30L from 65 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 22D 31L across 65 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.09 PPG, Lamia on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 9W 10D 12L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 5W 12D 14L across 31 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 18W 17D 30L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while Lamia have gone 12W 22D 31L in their last 65 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Lamia away?
Ionikos's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.19 PPG; Lamia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ionikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Lamia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 48%, Lamia 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ionikos) and 32% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 32%; Ionikos have failed to score in 36% of games; Lamia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ionikos's recent matches and 32% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ionikos's recent games and 32% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lamia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos and Lamia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos and Lamia finished level at 2-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.11 xG and Lamia 0.83 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ionikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamia outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Lamia attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 38% | Draw 39% | Lamia 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 42%, Lamia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.09 PPG, Lamia 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.