Atromitos 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atromitos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Peristeriou. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAS Giannina's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Atromitos, 0.60 for PAS Giannina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Atromitos 1W, PAS Giannina 0W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus PAS Giannina 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 36% | PAS Giannina 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.17 xG and PAS Giannina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.824 / defence 0.920 | PAS Giannina attack 0.970 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.999. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | PAS Giannina 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 20% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Atromitos 1.17 / PAS Giannina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.824 / def 0.920 | PAS Giannina attack 0.970 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
PAS Giannina xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Atromitos 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 38% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atromitos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Record (4 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 3 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.97x) against Atromitos's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
38%
2.62
38%
2.64
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
PAS Giannina xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.89 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 18D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.02 PPG from 61 outings (14W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Atromitos against 1.02 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.70 points per game from 30 outings (4W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 16W 18D 27L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 14W 20D 27L in their last 61 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Atromitos's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.47 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 43%, PAS Giannina 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Atromitos and 33% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; PAS Giannina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Atromitos's recent matches and 37% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Atromitos's recent games and 33% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 3, as Atromitos and PAS Giannina drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.17 xG and PAS Giannina 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against PAS Giannina attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 38% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 24%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, PAS Giannina 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.08 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.