Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atromitos (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Panetolikos at Peristeri Stadium in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atromitos at Peristeri Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Atromitos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Atromitos have won 5, Panetolikos 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 52% versus Panetolikos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 48% | Panetolikos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.07 xG and Panetolikos 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.919 / defence 1.070 | Panetolikos attack 0.830 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 36% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 29%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Panetolikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 7 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 36% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Atromitos 1.07 / Panetolikos 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.919 / def 1.070 | Panetolikos attack 0.830 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Panetolikos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Panetolikos?
Atromitos 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Panetolikos part of?
Atromitos vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Group - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 36% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atromitos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panetolikos?
Record (9 meetings): Atromitos 5W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 3W.
What form are Atromitos and Panetolikos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
36%
2.80
35%
2.86
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.01
0.95
Panetolikos xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.95 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 17D 25L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (20W 15D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.30 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 7W 11D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.28 points per game from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.88 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 22W 17D 25L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atromitos
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Panetolikos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 56%, Panetolikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Atromitos and 25% for Panetolikos.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 34%; Atromitos have failed to score in 34% of games; Panetolikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atromitos's recent matches and 38% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atromitos's recent games and 25% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.07 xG and Panetolikos 0.95 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 36% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 29%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 48%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.30 PPG, Panetolikos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.