Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atromitos welcome Apollon Smirnis to Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off is Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Apollon Smirnis have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Atromitos have won 2, Apollon Smirnis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2022, ended Atromitos 2–0 Apollon Smirnis — a Atromitos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 46% of Atromitos's games and 23% of Apollon Smirnis's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Apollon Smirnis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.097 / defence 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.502 / defence 1.761. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.761 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.502 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Atromitos's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Data: built from Atromitos's last 26 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 26.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.53 | Draw 4.69 | Apollon Smirnis 7.49. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 40% (last 10 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Atromitos 1.91 / Apollon Smirnis 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.097 / def 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.502 / def 1.761 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos 1 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 65% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.10x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 26 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.69
13%
7.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.64
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
7.49
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
2%
50.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.73 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Atromitos have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 5D 15L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 2W 7D 17L from 26 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 0.88 PPG, Apollon Smirnis on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 13 home games (5W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 1D 11L from their last 13 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 23%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 2W 7D 17L in their last 26 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.31 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 March 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Atromitos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2021, when Atromitos won Atromitos 4-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Atromitos's record when hosting Apollon Smirnis specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 3, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2022: Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 54%, Apollon Smirnis 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atromitos) and 54% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 31% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atromitos's recent matches and 31% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atromitos's recent games and 54% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Atromitos's recent matches and 62% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Apollon Smirnis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Apollon Smirnis 1-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.10 / defence 1.38 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.50 / defence 1.76, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Apollon Smirnis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 73% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 0.88 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.