Asteras Tripolis 1-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Asteras Tripolis welcome OFI to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 4 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Asteras Tripolis) versus 1.80 (OFI). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 43% versus OFI 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 29% | OFI 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.92 xG and OFI 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.005 / defence 1.004 | OFI attack 0.894 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.230. Data: 15 Asteras Tripolis games / 14 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Draw 30% | OFI 40%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 29% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Draw 30% | OFI 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.92 / OFI 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.005 / def 1.004 | OFI attack 0.894 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.10
OFI xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 OFI.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 30% chance of winning, OFI a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. OFI (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.00x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.29
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.03
1.10
OFI xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.10 for OFI, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 2L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 3W 3D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.57 PPG overall record — OFI travel well.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.21 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and OFI in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while OFI have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.67 PPG; OFI away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, OFI in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and OFI?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 33%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Asteras Tripolis and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 50%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 50% of games; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and OFI tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat OFI 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.92 xG and OFI 1.10 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OFI landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against OFI attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 30% | Draw 30% | OFI 40%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 29%, OFI 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Asteras Tripolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.