Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis than their overall form suggests.
Lamia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lamia are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Lamia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 33% versus Lamia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 27% | Lamia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and Lamia 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.932 / defence 0.853 | Lamia attack 0.742 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Data: 52 Asteras Tripolis games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 36% | Lamia 15%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.04 | Draw 2.78 | Lamia 6.67. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 36% | Lamia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.30 / Lamia 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.932 / def 0.853 | Lamia attack 0.742 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Lamia xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 49% chance of winning, Lamia a 15% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 1 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
49%
2.03
36%
2.76
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.93
0.63
Lamia xG
2.03
49%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.63 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 22D 25L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.89 PPG from 63 outings (12W 20D 31L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.11 PPG, Lamia on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 12W 11D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (6W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.71 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 22D 25L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Lamia have gone 12W 20D 31L in their last 63 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Lamia away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.47 PPG; Lamia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lamia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
4
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Lamia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Asteras Tripolis 31% BTTS, Lamia 34%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Asteras Tripolis and 34% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 41% of games; Lamia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 34% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 34% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Lamia tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Lamia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Relegation Round - 5, as Asteras Tripolis and Lamia drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.30 xG and Lamia 0.63 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 49% | Draw 36% | Lamia 15%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 27%, Lamia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG, Lamia 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.