Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
PAOK away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, PAOK in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 31% versus PAOK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | PAOK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and PAOK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.974 / defence 0.990 | PAOK attack 1.170 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Draw 29% | PAOK 43%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | PAOK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | PAOK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Draw 29% | PAOK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 / PAOK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.974 / def 0.990 | PAOK attack 1.170 / def 0.936 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAOK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.22
PAOK xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 PAOK.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 27% chance of winning, PAOK a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.97x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.17x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
27%
3.67
29%
3.40
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.12
1.22
PAOK xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.22 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 14W 7D 8L from 29 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 6L across 29 games — 2.03 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 2.03 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 7W 5D 2L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 8W 2D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.83 scored and 0.90 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Aris Thessalonikis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; PAOK in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 14W 7D 8L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while PAOK have gone 18W 5D 6L in their last 29 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAOK away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.86 PPG; PAOK away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, PAOK in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 21%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 57% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; PAOK in 43%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 57% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAOK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAOK 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and PAOK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAOK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against PAOK attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Draw 29% | PAOK 43%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, PAOK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.69 PPG, PAOK 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.