Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Panserraikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 September 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panserraikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panserraikos's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Aris Thessalonikis. A 1.80 PPG lead over Panserraikos (2.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Panserraikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Aris Thessalonikis, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Panserraikos — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The historical record gives Aris Thessalonikis a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 47% versus Panserraikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Panserraikos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.76 xG and Panserraikos 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.955 / defence 0.962 | Panserraikos attack 0.779 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.087. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 30 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 17%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Panserraikos 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Panserraikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.76 / Panserraikos 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.955 / def 0.962 | Panserraikos attack 0.779 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Panserraikos xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 60% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
Record (4 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.95x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.78x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.33
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.58
0.81
Panserraikos xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
34.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.81 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 19W 8D 9L from 36 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 19L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 4W 1D 13L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.03 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 10W 7D 19L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panserraikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.17 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panserraikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panserraikos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 61% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 28% of games; Panserraikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 44% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 61% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.76 xG and Panserraikos 0.81 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Panserraikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 23% | Panserraikos 17%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panserraikos 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Panserraikos's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.