Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa meet at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Larisa have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 27% | Larisa 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.757 / defence 0.856 | Larisa attack 0.790 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.233. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Aris Thessalonikis games / 11 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 30% | Larisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Larisa 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Larisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 30% | Larisa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 / Larisa 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.757 / def 0.856 | Larisa attack 0.790 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Larisa xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 44% chance of winning, Larisa a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Larisa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.76x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.79x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 37/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.34
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.03
0.83
Larisa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.83 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 4D 4L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Larisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.91 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Larisa have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Larisa away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.20 PPG; Larisa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
1
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 1, Larisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Larisa 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 40%, Larisa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Aris Thessalonikis and 40% for Larisa.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 40% of games; Larisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 40% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 40% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Larisa tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Larisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Larisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Larisa 2-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 44% | Draw 30% | Larisa 26%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 27%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.