Aris Thessalonikis 3-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis over their recent games (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, AEK Athens FC edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Aris Thessalonikis 0–1 AEK Athens FC — a AEK Athens FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 44% versus AEK Athens FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 52% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.008 / defence 0.809 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.366 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. AEK Athens FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.366, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 51 games and AEK Athens FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 29% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.41 | Draw 3.37 | AEK Athens FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and AEK Athens FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | AEK Athens FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 29% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 / AEK Athens FC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.008 / def 0.809 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.366 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AEK Athens FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 29% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.37x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 51 games and AEK Athens FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.37
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.72
1.49
AEK Athens FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.49 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 11D 23L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.31 PPG from 61 outings (43W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (19W 7D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.07 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs AEK Athens FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 11D 23L in their last 61 games (1.51 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 43W 12D 6L in their last 61 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.03 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, AEK Athens FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 53% (AEK Athens FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 47% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 53% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 73% of AEK Athens FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 26, as Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC drew 3-3 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.23 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.49 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 29% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 41%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 52%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.