AEK Athens FC 3-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Allwyn Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Group - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allwyn Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAOK's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to PAOK, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 34% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 42% | PAOK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.59 xG and PAOK 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.358 / defence 0.671 | PAOK attack 1.238 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 0.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 29% | PAOK 19%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | PAOK 5.26. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
PAOK lead the H2H ledger, but AEK Athens FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 2 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 29% | PAOK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.59 / PAOK 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.358 / def 0.671 | PAOK attack 1.238 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
PAOK xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 PAOK.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Championship Group - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 52% chance of winning, PAOK a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
Record (8 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 3 | PAOK 4W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.36x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.24x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.46
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.47
0.88
PAOK xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
25.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.88 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 59 games, going 35W 11D 13L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.97 PPG from 59 outings (35W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.97 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 20W 4D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.76 points per game from 29 outings (15W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.93 scored and 0.92 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 35W 11D 13L in their last 59 games (1.97 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 11D 13L in their last 59 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.21 PPG; PAOK away: 1.76 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 31%, PAOK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AEK Athens FC) and 69% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; PAOK in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 66% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 69% of PAOK's.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PAOK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 3-0 at Allwyn Arena, Championship Group - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.59 xG and PAOK 0.88 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.67 against PAOK attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 29% | PAOK 19%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 42%, PAOK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.97 PPG, PAOK 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.