AEK Athens FC 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OPAP Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's home record at OPAP Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at OPAP Arena this season.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in AEK Athens FC's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, AEK Athens FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AEK Athens FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 31% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AEK Athens FC 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 0.828 / defence 0.729 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.889 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.231. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 AEK Athens FC games / 36 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.11 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 0.828 / def 0.729 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.889 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Aris Thessalonikis xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 43% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): AEK Athens FC 5W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.89x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.17
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.80
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.80 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 6D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 19W 12D 11L from 42 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.64 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (13W 3D 5L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.21 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 23W 6D 13L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.29 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 5-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 29%, Aris Thessalonikis 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AEK Athens FC) and 43% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 62% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.11 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.80 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.73 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 36%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.79 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.