Werder Bremen 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and Union Berlin meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Werder Bremen, 0.90 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Union Berlin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Berlin, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Union Berlin winning.
It is worth noting that Union Berlin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 67% versus Union Berlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 69% | Union Berlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.02 xG and Union Berlin 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.034 / defence 1.105 | Union Berlin attack 0.949 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.533. Data: 42 Werder Bremen games / 42 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Union Berlin 3.23. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Union Berlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Werder Bremen 2.02 / Union Berlin 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.034 / def 1.105 | Union Berlin attack 0.949 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Union Berlin xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Werder Bremen 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin part of?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Werder Bremen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Record (4 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.95x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
47%
2.11
22%
4.59
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.62
1.61
Union Berlin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
4%
24.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.61 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 6D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 20W 8D 14L from 42 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 2D 11L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 12W 6D 24L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.10 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 67%, Union Berlin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Werder Bremen and 57% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Werder Bremen's games and 52% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Werder Bremen's matches and 57% of Union Berlin's.
Do Werder Bremen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 2-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.02 xG and Union Berlin 1.61 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Union Berlin attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | Union Berlin 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, Union Berlin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.