Werder Bremen 2-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Werder Bremen (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Werder Bremen's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Schalke 04's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Schalke 04 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 63% and FC Schalke 04 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 63% | FC Schalke 04 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.77 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.899 / defence 1.116 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.595 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.371. Data: 12 Werder Bremen games / 12 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 19%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | FC Schalke 04 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | FC Schalke 04 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Werder Bremen 1.77 / FC Schalke 04 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.899 / def 1.116 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.595 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04?
Werder Bremen 2 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 57% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04?
Record (4 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 2 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04 in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC Schalke 04's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.59x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.12
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.68
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
31.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 0.91 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 23W 12D 11L from 46 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 17L across 46 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.54 for FC Schalke 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 10W 5D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.80 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC Schalke 04 in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 games (1.76 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 21W 8D 17L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.61 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 1-4 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when FC Schalke 04 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Schalke 04?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 56%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Werder Bremen) and 56% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Werder Bremen's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out FC Schalke 04 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Schalke 04 2-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.77 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.59 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 19%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, FC Schalke 04 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.76 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.