Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Werder Bremen welcome Borussia Dortmund to wohninvest WESERSTADION. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at wohninvest WESERSTADION this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 3–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 66% and Borussia Dortmund 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 66% | Borussia Dortmund 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.39 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.892 / defence 1.134 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.090 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.355. Data: 19 Werder Bremen games / 53 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 42%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Werder Bremen 1.39 / Borussia Dortmund 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.892 / def 1.134 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.090 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 30% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (3 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.54
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
18.05
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.68 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 26W 12D 15L from 53 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 34W 4D 15L across 53 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.70 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 14W 3D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.32 scored and 1.47 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 26W 12D 15L in their last 53 games (1.70 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 34W 4D 15L in their last 53 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.59 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 63%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Werder Bremen) and 63% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Werder Bremen's matches and 63% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.39 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 42%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 66%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.70 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.