Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host Bayern München at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen at Weserstadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayern München — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Werder Bremen's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 66%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus Bayern München 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 60% | Bayern München 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and Bayern München 2.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.772 / defence 1.166 | Bayern München attack 1.773 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.773 — the away xG of 2.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Werder Bremen games / 55 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 9% | Draw 15% | Bayern München 76%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 11.11 | Draw 6.67 | Bayern München 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 60% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | Bayern München 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 9% | Draw 15% | Bayern München 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 60% | xG Werder Bremen 0.99 / Bayern München 2.93 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.772 / def 1.166 | Bayern München attack 1.773 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
2.93
Bayern München xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Bayern München kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Werder Bremen 0 - 3 Bayern München.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München part of?
Werder Bremen vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 9% chance of winning, Bayern München a 76% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Werder Bremen and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | Bayern München 7W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayern München in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 2.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-3 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
9%
11.17
15%
6.59
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.92
2.93
Bayern München xG
11.17
9%
Home win
6.59
15%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
5%
18.67
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
0%
–
28%
3.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 2.93 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 16D 21L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 42W 10D 3L from 55 games, 2.47 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 19W 7D 1L from 27 away games — 2.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.24 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 42W 10D 3L in their last 55 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.26 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bayern München in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Bayern München won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
8
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Bayern München have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 48%, Bayern München 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Werder Bremen and 82% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München in 41%; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Bayern München?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 59% of Bayern München's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Werder Bremen's matches and 82% of Bayern München's.
Do Werder Bremen and Bayern München tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Werder Bremen 0-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and Bayern München 2.93 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Bayern München attack 1.77 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 9% | Draw 15% | Bayern München 76%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Bayern München 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayern München's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.