VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfL Wolfsburg face Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host Union Berlin at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union Berlin stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.60 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 3 for Union Berlin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 66% versus Union Berlin 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 61% | Union Berlin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 xG and Union Berlin 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.925 / defence 1.236 | Union Berlin attack 0.722 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.463. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 44 games and Union Berlin's last 44.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 35%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.23 | Draw 2.91 | Union Berlin 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 / Union Berlin 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.925 / def 1.236 | Union Berlin attack 0.722 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Union Berlin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 31% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 44 games and Union Berlin's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
31%
3.23
34%
2.91
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.53
1.30
Union Berlin xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.30 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 10D 21L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.11 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.09 PPG from their last 22 home games (6W 6D 10L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 6D 13L from their last 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.95 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.09 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfL Wolfsburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, Union Berlin have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 77%, Union Berlin 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 32% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 77% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 27% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 32% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 54% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 xG and Union Berlin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Union Berlin attack 0.72 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 31% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 35%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 61%, Union Berlin 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.11 PPG, Union Berlin 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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