VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Wolfsburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to Volkswagen Arena to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Volkswagen Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at Volkswagen Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 0.90 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Borussia Dortmund in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 53% versus Borussia Dortmund 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 58% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.897 / defence 1.059 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.303 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 VfL Wolfsburg games / 55 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 22% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 50%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.00. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 22% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 / Borussia Dortmund 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.897 / def 1.059 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.303 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 22% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.90x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.30x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
22%
4.62
28%
3.54
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.73
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
4%
24.72
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.68 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 15D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.02 PPG from 55 outings (33W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 12D 10L in their last 55 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.48 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.63 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 63%, Borussia Dortmund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for VfL Wolfsburg and 59% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 22, as VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 22% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 50%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.