VfB Stuttgart 2-3 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 1D 3L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 67% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 61% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG and SC Freiburg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / defence 1.064 | SC Freiburg attack 0.880 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.171. Data: 36 VfB Stuttgart games / 36 SC Freiburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 5.26. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.87 / SC Freiburg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.183 / def 1.064 | SC Freiburg attack 0.880 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SC Freiburg xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 3 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.18x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.88x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.97
1.10
SC Freiburg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
3%
33.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.10 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 9D 14L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.36 PPG from 36 outings (13W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.36 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.33 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 72%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VfB Stuttgart) and 61% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfB Stuttgart 2-3 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG and SC Freiburg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 19%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 61%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.33 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.