VfB Stuttgart 0-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as VfB Stuttgart welcome RB Leipzig to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 4D 2L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RB Leipzig's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of VfB Stuttgart's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 85% and RB Leipzig 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 62% | RB Leipzig 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.16 xG and RB Leipzig 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.025 / defence 1.294 | RB Leipzig attack 0.816 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.545. Data: 13 VfB Stuttgart games / 13 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 45%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | RB Leipzig 2.22. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 100% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.16 / RB Leipzig 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.025 / def 1.294 | RB Leipzig attack 0.816 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.63
RB Leipzig xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 January 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 24% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.02x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
24%
4.16
31%
3.25
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.79
1.63
RB Leipzig xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
5%
21.26
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.63 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 4W 6D 3L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 8W 4D 1L from 13 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (0W 4D 2L). That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.85 scored and 0.69 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's scoring rate against RB Leipzig's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 6D 3L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.67 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.50 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2021, when RB Leipzig won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 100%, RB Leipzig at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (VfB Stuttgart) and 17% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 17% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out VfB Stuttgart 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.16 xG and RB Leipzig 1.63 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.29 against RB Leipzig attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 24% | Draw 31% | RB Leipzig 45%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 62%, RB Leipzig 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.