Union Berlin 2-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Union Berlin — this Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Werder Bremen have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.60 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Werder Bremen managing 2 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Union Berlin 1–4 Werder Bremen — a Werder Bremen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Union Berlin and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus Werder Bremen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.39 xG and Werder Bremen 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.915 / defence 0.966 | Werder Bremen attack 1.090 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.406. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 65 games and Werder Bremen's last 65.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.91 | Draw 3.69 | Werder Bremen 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Werder Bremen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 60% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Union Berlin 1.39 / Werder Bremen 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.915 / def 0.966 | Werder Bremen attack 1.090 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Werder Bremen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen part of?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 34% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.09x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 65 games and Werder Bremen's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.69
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.87
1.48
Werder Bremen xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.48 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 18W 16D 31L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 24W 16D 25L from 65 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.35 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 8D 12L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 12W 7D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 18W 16D 31L in their last 65 games (1.08 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 24W 16D 25L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Werder Bremen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.38 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen, the earliest from January 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 53%, Werder Bremen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 59% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 53% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 59% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 69% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.39 xG and Werder Bremen 1.48 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Werder Bremen attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.08 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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