Union Berlin 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union Berlin (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Union Berlin. A 0.70 PPG lead over FSV Mainz 05 (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 58% versus FSV Mainz 05 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | FSV Mainz 05 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.18 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.111 / defence 0.825 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.915 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.382. Data: 52 Union Berlin games / 52 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 62% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 16%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | FSV Mainz 05 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 62% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 2.18 / FSV Mainz 05 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.111 / def 0.825 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.915 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FSV Mainz 05 xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 62% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.92x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.65
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.22
1.04
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
54.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.04 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin come into this having played 52 games, going 27W 12D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.33 PPG from 52 outings (19W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Union Berlin's home form reads 16W 7D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (7W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.46 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 27W 12D 13L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.20 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
4
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Union Berlin, 72% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 64% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union Berlin's games and 72% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.18 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.04 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 62% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 16%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, FSV Mainz 05 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.