Union Berlin 1-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Union Berlin have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Union Berlin's games and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Union Berlin: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
The head-to-head data gives Union Berlin an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 40% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.31 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.700 / defence 0.878 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.931 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.368. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 55 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 55.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.51 | Draw 3.36 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), yet Borussia Mönchengladbach are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Union Berlin 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Union Berlin 1.31 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.700 / def 0.878 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.931 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin 1 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 40% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.70x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 55 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.36
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.12 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 15W 12D 28L from 55 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 22L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.04 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 11W 6D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 5W 9D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.62 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 71%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.44 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 52%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Union Berlin and 70% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Union Berlin's games and 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 85% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Mönchengladbach defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Union Berlin 1-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.31 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.70 / defence 0.88 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 40% | Draw 30% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.04 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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