Union Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at An der Alten Försterei: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Dortmund — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Union Berlin's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 59% versus Borussia Dortmund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 64% | Borussia Dortmund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.867 / defence 1.114 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.089 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.999 / away 1.425. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Union Berlin games / 39 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 48%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 2.08. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Union Berlin 1.29 / Borussia Dortmund 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.867 / def 1.114 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.089 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.999 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 29% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.87x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
29%
3.50
24%
4.24
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.02
1.73
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
5%
19.73
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.73 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 10D 18L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 26W 8D 5L from 39 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 5D 3L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 8D 5L in their last 39 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.21 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Union Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 68%, Borussia Dortmund 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Union Berlin and 53% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Union Berlin's games and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union Berlin's matches and 53% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 0-0 at An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.73 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 48%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 64%, Borussia Dortmund 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.