SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome 1. FC Köln to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.00 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 61% and 1. FC Köln 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | 1. FC Köln 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.637 / defence 1.087 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.945 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 SC Paderborn 07 games / 36 1. FC Köln games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 34%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 90% | 1. FC Köln 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.50 / 1. FC Köln 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.637 / def 1.087 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.945 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
1. FC Köln xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.75
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.88
1.38
1. FC Köln xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.38 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 9D 9L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.97 PPG from 36 outings (8W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (2W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.47 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 81%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.83 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.72 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 78%, 1. FC Köln at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SC Paderborn 07 and 56% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 72% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 56% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.