SC Freiburg 3-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.50 PPG lead over VfL Bochum (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, VfL Bochum in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 62% versus VfL Bochum 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 59% | VfL Bochum 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.77 xG and VfL Bochum 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.055 / defence 1.108 | VfL Bochum attack 0.786 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.318. Data: 63 SC Freiburg games / 29 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Bochum 4.35. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | VfL Bochum 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Freiburg 1.77 / VfL Bochum 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.055 / def 1.108 | VfL Bochum attack 0.786 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
VfL Bochum xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg 3 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 51% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.05) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.79x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.85
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.15
VfL Bochum xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.15 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 13W 9D 7L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 10W 6D 13L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
VfL Bochum
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 10W 6D 13L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.79 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.79 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 7, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 71%, VfL Bochum 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (SC Freiburg) and 50% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Freiburg's games and 50% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SC Freiburg's matches and 50% of VfL Bochum's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 3-0 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.77 xG and VfL Bochum 1.15 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Bochum landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against VfL Bochum attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 51% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 59%, VfL Bochum 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.