SC Freiburg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus FSV Mainz 05 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.82 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.990 / defence 0.912 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.802 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.362. Data: 55 SC Freiburg games / 55 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | FSV Mainz 05 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 70% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Freiburg 1.82 / FSV Mainz 05 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.990 / def 0.912 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.802 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FSV Mainz 05 xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 55% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (1 meetings): SC Freiburg 0W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.80x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.70
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.00
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
3%
33.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.00 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 15D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.25 PPG from 55 outings (19W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.25 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.67 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SC Freiburg
6
Draws
0
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Freiburg, 67% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Freiburg and 63% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Freiburg's matches and 63% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 finished level at 1-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.82 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.00 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 55% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 18%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.