SC Freiburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Europa-Park-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Europa-Park-Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for SC Freiburg against 0.70 for FC St. Pauli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 56% versus FC St. Pauli 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 65% | FC St. Pauli 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.034 / defence 1.008 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.695 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.463. Data: 43 SC Freiburg games / 43 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | FC St. Pauli 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG SC Freiburg 1.55 / FC St. Pauli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.034 / def 1.008 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.695 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 49% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.69x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.78
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.02
FC St. Pauli xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.02 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 11D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.91 PPG from 43 outings (10W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.84 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 10W 9D 24L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.67 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC St. Pauli won 0-3 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 76%, FC St. Pauli 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 81% (SC Freiburg) and 33% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 76% of SC Freiburg's recent matches and 33% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of SC Freiburg's matches and 33% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.55 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 65%, FC St. Pauli 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.