SC Freiburg 3-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Dreisamstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Dreisamstadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 59% versus FC Augsburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | FC Augsburg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.34 xG and FC Augsburg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.010 / defence 0.932 | FC Augsburg attack 0.753 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.184. FC Augsburg's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 SC Freiburg games / 39 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | FC Augsburg 5.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 60% | FC Augsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dreisamstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Freiburg 1.34 / FC Augsburg 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.010 / def 0.932 | FC Augsburg attack 0.753 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC Augsburg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Dreisamstadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 3 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Dreisamstadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 45% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.75x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
45%
2.22
35%
2.83
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.17
0.83
FC Augsburg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.83 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 12D 13L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 11W 8D 20L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.05 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 0.97 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 68%, FC Augsburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SC Freiburg) and 42% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%; FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Freiburg's games and 47% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 42% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 3-0 at Dreisamstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.34 xG and FC Augsburg 0.83 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 0.77, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 45% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, FC Augsburg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.