SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park-Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
SC Freiburg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 5 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.027 / defence 0.845 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.797 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.397. Data: 56 SC Freiburg games / 56 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG SC Freiburg 1.76 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.027 / def 0.845 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.797 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 56% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (9 meetings): SC Freiburg 4W | Draws 5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.91
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.70
0.94
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
30.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.94 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 13D 19L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 18W 13D 25L from 56 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.52 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.89 PPG from 27 outings (15W 6D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 24W 13D 19L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.89 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
5
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 74%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for SC Freiburg and 59% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Freiburg's games and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of SC Freiburg's matches and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.76 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.94 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.84 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 19%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.52 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.