SC Freiburg 2-2 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Bayern München travel to Schwarzwald-Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Schwarzwald-Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Schwarzwald-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayern München have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayern München are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
SC Freiburg trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bayern München trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and Bayern München 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 62% | Bayern München 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.067 / defence 1.098 | Bayern München attack 1.166 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.272. Data: 32 SC Freiburg games / 32 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 34% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Bayern München 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 50% | Bayern München 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 34% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Freiburg 1.50 / Bayern München 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.067 / def 1.098 | Bayern München attack 1.166 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Bayern München xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Bayern München.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 34% chance of winning, Bayern München a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.69
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.13
1.63
Bayern München xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.63 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 12W 8D 12L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Bayern München, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 4L across 32 games — 2.31 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayern München by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 7W 5D 4L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayern München's away record stands at 11W 1D 4L across 16 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 23W 5D 4L in their last 32 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.62 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayern München have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bayern München won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
9
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 0, Bayern München have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 62%, Bayern München at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SC Freiburg and 75% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SC Freiburg's games and 75% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Freiburg's matches and 75% of Bayern München's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Bayern München share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, as SC Freiburg and Bayern München drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.63 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Bayern München attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 34% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 39%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Bayern München 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.