Holstein Kiel 0-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holstein-Stadion plays host to Holstein Kiel versus RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Holstein Kiel's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RB Leipzig are 1.00 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 56% versus RB Leipzig 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 61% | RB Leipzig 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 0.97 xG and RB Leipzig 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.616 / defence 1.367 | RB Leipzig attack 1.101 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.465. Holstein Kiel's attack rating of 0.616 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Holstein Kiel's defence rating of 1.367 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RB Leipzig's projected output up. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 12 games and RB Leipzig's last 46.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 63%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 7.50 | Draw 4.31 | RB Leipzig 1.58. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and RB Leipzig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 40% (last 10 home games) | RB Leipzig 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Holstein Kiel 0.97 / RB Leipzig 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.616 / def 1.367 | RB Leipzig attack 1.101 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.21
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig part of?
Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 13% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.10x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.21.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 12 games and RB Leipzig's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
13%
7.50
23%
4.31
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.17
2.21
RB Leipzig xG
7.50
13%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
11%
9.08
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
1%
68.06
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.21 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 22W 7D 17L from 46 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 10L across 46 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.87 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 10W 2D 11L from their last 23 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 11W 5D 7L across their last 23 away games, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs RB Leipzig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 17L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.39 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
1
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: RB Leipzig 1-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Holstein Kiel, 74% for RB Leipzig — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Holstein Kiel and 70% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Holstein Kiel's games and 74% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 70% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Holstein Kiel and RB Leipzig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 70% of RB Leipzig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Holstein Kiel 0-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.97 xG and RB Leipzig 2.21 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.62 / defence 1.37 against RB Leipzig attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | RB Leipzig 63%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 61%, RB Leipzig 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.59 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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