Holstein Kiel 0-3 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Holstein Kiel welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Holstein-Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Holstein Kiel at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Holstein Kiel are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FSV Mainz 05's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Holstein Kiel's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 57% versus FSV Mainz 05 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 59% | FSV Mainz 05 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.679 / defence 1.382 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.161 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.411. Holstein Kiel's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Holstein Kiel's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FSV Mainz 05's projected output up. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 10 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 44.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 64%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 7.56 | Draw 4.40 | FSV Mainz 05 1.56. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 40% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Holstein Kiel 0.99 / FSV Mainz 05 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.679 / def 1.382 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.161 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
2.26
FSV Mainz 05 xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 3 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 13% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 10 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
13%
7.56
23%
4.40
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.26
2.26
FSV Mainz 05 xG
7.56
13%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
10%
9.62
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
1%
72.78
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.26 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 22W 7D 15L from 44 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 10W 18D 16L across 44 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Holstein Kiel by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 9W 2D 10L from their last 21 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 3W 11D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.23 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 15L in their last 44 games (1.66 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 10W 18D 16L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.38 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
1
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 0, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 57%, FSV Mainz 05 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Holstein Kiel) and 57% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Holstein Kiel's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 57% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 76% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Holstein Kiel 0-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.99 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.26 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.68 / defence 1.38 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 13% | Draw 23% | FSV Mainz 05 64%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 59%, FSV Mainz 05 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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