Hertha BSC 2-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hertha BSC, 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 52% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.48 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.920 / defence 1.317 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.051 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.321. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Hertha BSC games / 27 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.22. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 40% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Hertha BSC 1.48 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.920 / def 1.317 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.051 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 31% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (1.05x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
31%
3.26
24%
4.14
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.83
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 7D 14L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 10W 9D 8L from 27 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 5D 4L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.70 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.08 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 4-1 on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hertha BSC and 77% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Hertha BSC's games and 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hertha BSC's matches and 77% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 28, as Hertha BSC and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.48 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.83 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.05 / defence 1.34, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.