Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart at Volksparkstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hamburger SV at 1.30 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hamburger SV have won 1, VfB Stuttgart 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–4 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 95% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 62% and VfB Stuttgart 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 59% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.61 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.816 / defence 1.240 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.065 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.999 / away 1.425. Data: 39 Hamburger SV games / 39 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 33% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 45%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 2.22. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 80% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 33% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Hamburger SV 1.61 / VfB Stuttgart 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.816 / def 1.240 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.065 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.999 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.88
VfB Stuttgart xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 33% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 1W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
33%
2.99
22%
4.52
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.49
1.88
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.69
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.88 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 11D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.74 PPG from 39 outings (20W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.03 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.42 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
From 5 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 68%, VfB Stuttgart at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Hamburger SV and 95% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hamburger SV's games and 79% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hamburger SV's matches and 95% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.61 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.88 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 33% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 45%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 59%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Hamburger SV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.