FSV Mainz 05 1-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for SC Freiburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 59% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 59% | SC Freiburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.15 xG and SC Freiburg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.117 / defence 0.903 | SC Freiburg attack 0.871 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.821 / away 1.236. Data: 58 FSV Mainz 05 games / 58 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 62% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 14%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | SC Freiburg 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 62% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.15 / SC Freiburg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.117 / def 0.903 | SC Freiburg attack 0.871 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.821 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
SC Freiburg xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 62% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (1.12) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.87x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
62%
1.60
24%
4.23
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.12
0.97
SC Freiburg xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
61.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.97 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 23W 13D 22L from 58 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 14L across 58 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.72 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 15W 9D 5L from 29 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 12W 8D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Freiburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.86 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.52 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
4
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 45%, SC Freiburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (FSV Mainz 05) and 59% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 41%; SC Freiburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 48% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 59% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg finished level at 1-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.15 xG and SC Freiburg 0.97 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against SC Freiburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 62% | Draw 24% | SC Freiburg 14%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 59%, SC Freiburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.41 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.