FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 3W 5D 2L at MEWA ARENA — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 54% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 58% | Eintracht Frankfurt 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.55 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.868 / defence 1.019 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.240 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.300. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 FSV Mainz 05 games / 48 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 40% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.55 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.868 / def 1.019 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.240 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 36% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.87) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
36%
2.76
23%
4.27
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.19
1.64
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.64 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 18W 10D 20L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 16L across 48 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 11W 8D 4L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 6D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 18W 14D 16L in their last 48 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.78 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 39%, Eintracht Frankfurt 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FSV Mainz 05) and 56% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 26% of games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 56% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 1-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.55 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.64 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.24 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 36% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.