FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 7W 2D 1L at MEWA ARENA — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEWA ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FSV Mainz 05 are significantly better at MEWA ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FSV Mainz 05 1.10 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 58% and Eintracht Frankfurt 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.118 / defence 0.642 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.889 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.414. FSV Mainz 05's defence rating of 0.642 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 FSV Mainz 05 games / 67 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 57% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 16%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Frankfurt 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 57% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.71 / Eintracht Frankfurt 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.118 / def 0.642 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.889 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 2 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 57% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (1.12) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
57%
1.74
26%
3.79
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.52
0.81
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
34.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.81 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 23W 15D 29L from 67 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 23D 18L across 67 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.25 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 14W 8D 11L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 12W 9D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.67 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 73%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 games (1.25 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 23D 18L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.52 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 46%, Eintracht Frankfurt 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FSV Mainz 05) and 61% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 70% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 2-2 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 0.81 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.12 / defence 0.64 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 57% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 16%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.