FC Schalke 04 1-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as FC Schalke 04 welcome Hertha BSC to VELTINS-Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at VELTINS-Arena, FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Schalke 04, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2021, ended 0–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 55% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 39% versus Hertha BSC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 68% | Hertha BSC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.80 xG and Hertha BSC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.550 / defence 1.419 | Hertha BSC attack 0.684 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.265. FC Schalke 04's attack strength of 0.550 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 FC Schalke 04 games / 31 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 34% | Hertha BSC 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Hertha BSC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 10% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 34% | Hertha BSC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.80 / Hertha BSC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.550 / def 1.419 | Hertha BSC attack 0.684 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hertha BSC xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 22% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.55) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
22%
4.52
34%
2.96
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.03
1.23
Hertha BSC xG
4.52
22%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.23 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 2W 7D 22L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Hertha BSC's form line: 7W 10D 14L from 31 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 6D 7L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.58 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 2W 7D 22L in their last 31 games (0.42 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 0.60 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jan 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Schalke 04
2
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Hertha BSC 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 27%, Hertha BSC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Schalke 04) and 40% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 have failed to score in 60% of games; Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 60% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Schalke 04's recent games and 40% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out FC Schalke 04 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Schalke 04 1-2 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 0.80 xG and Hertha BSC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.55 / defence 1.42 against Hertha BSC attack 0.68 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 34% | Hertha BSC 44%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 68%, Hertha BSC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.