1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Dortmund to Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of Borussia Dortmund's (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 2–2 Borussia Dortmund — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 55% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | Borussia Dortmund 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Borussia Dortmund have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Borussia Dortmund surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.936 / defence 1.254 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.449 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.279. Borussia Dortmund bring a tight defence (rating 0.756, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output down. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.449, which lifts their away xG to 2.33. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Dortmund's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 19 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 53.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 18% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 61%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.51 | Draw 4.82 | Borussia Dortmund 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.23 / 2.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 18% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 / Borussia Dortmund 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.936 / def 1.254 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.449 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 18% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.94) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 19 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
18%
5.51
21%
4.82
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.55
2.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
5.51
18%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
10%
10.23
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
2%
56.35
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.33 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 15D 13L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.02 PPG from 53 outings (32W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.70 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across their last 26 home games, a 2.19 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 26 away games (12W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 60%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 25W 15D 13L in their last 53 games (1.70 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.19 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.65 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Borussia Dortmund 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 92% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 20, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.33 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.94 / defence 1.25 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.45 / defence 0.76, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 18% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 61%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Borussia Dortmund 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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