FC Augsburg 1-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Augsburg have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC Augsburg's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Bochum in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, VfL Bochum edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended FC Augsburg 1–1 VfL Bochum — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and VfL Bochum 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 67% | VfL Bochum 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.37 xG and VfL Bochum 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.009 / defence 0.958 | VfL Bochum attack 0.854 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.418 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Augsburg's projected output up. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 45 games and VfL Bochum's last 45.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 63% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.60 | Draw 4.50 | VfL Bochum 6.60. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 63% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG FC Augsburg 2.37 / VfL Bochum 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.009 / def 0.958 | VfL Bochum attack 0.854 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
VfL Bochum xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 63% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.01) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.85x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from FC Augsburg's last 45 games and VfL Bochum's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.50
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.51
1.15
VfL Bochum xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
9%
10.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
1%
70.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.15 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 12D 20L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 8W 13D 24L from 45 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.82 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 4D 16L from their last 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.20 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 67%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
FC Augsburg (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 8W 13D 24L in their last 45 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfL Bochum away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Augsburg have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for FC Augsburg, 61% for VfL Bochum — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Augsburg and 70% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Augsburg vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Augsburg's games and 61% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Augsburg's matches and 70% of VfL Bochum's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 78% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out VfL Bochum 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Bochum 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.37 xG and VfL Bochum 1.15 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 1.42, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 63% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 15%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 67%, VfL Bochum 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.13 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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