FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Augsburg against 2.10 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to VfB Stuttgart, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 50% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 55% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.856 / defence 0.911 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.402 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.365. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 FC Augsburg games / 60 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 30% | VfB Stuttgart 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 1.53 / VfB Stuttgart 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.856 / def 0.911 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.402 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.74
VfB Stuttgart xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC Augsburg 2 - 5 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (9 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 7W.
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.86) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.40x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
34%
2.94
23%
4.31
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.27
1.74
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.81
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.74 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 14D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.67 PPG from 60 outings (29W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.92 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.47 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
8
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, VfB Stuttgart 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 80% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 2-5 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.74 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.40 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.