FC Augsburg 1-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SC Freiburg have collected 0.75 PPG across 8 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 2.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.38 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Augsburg. A 0.63 PPG lead over SC Freiburg (1.38 vs 0.75) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 50% and SC Freiburg 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 50% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and SC Freiburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.860 / defence 1.114 | SC Freiburg attack 0.711 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.612. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 FC Augsburg games / 8 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 32% | SC Freiburg 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | SC Freiburg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: FC Augsburg 25% | SC Freiburg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 32% | SC Freiburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.52 / SC Freiburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.860 / def 1.114 | SC Freiburg attack 0.711 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 2.38 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.71x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.28
SC Freiburg xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.28 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.12 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SC Freiburg away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 25%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 75% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 50% of games; SC Freiburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 75% of SC Freiburg's.
Do FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg finished level at 1-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and SC Freiburg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against SC Freiburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 32% | SC Freiburg 28%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 50%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.