FC Augsburg 2-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 4.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in FC Augsburg's favour (1.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Schalke 04 — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 60% versus FC Schalke 04 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 50% | FC Schalke 04 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.05 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.829 / defence 1.123 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.633 / defence 1.928. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.590. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.928 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 FC Augsburg games / 10 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 56% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | FC Schalke 04 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Augsburg 40% | FC Schalke 04 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 56% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Augsburg 2.05 / FC Schalke 04 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.829 / def 1.123 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.633 / def 1.928 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.590 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FC Schalke 04 xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 December 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
FC Augsburg 2 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 56% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.63x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.74
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.18
1.13
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
2%
44.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.13 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 7L across 10 games — 0.30 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Augsburg by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 0.60 scored and 3.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when FC Augsburg 1-1 FC Schalke 04.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 40%, FC Schalke 04 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FC Augsburg and 100% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 40% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Augsburg's matches and 100% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 11, as FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.05 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.13 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.63 / defence 1.93, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 56% | Draw 27% | FC Schalke 04 17%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 50%, FC Schalke 04 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 4.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.