FC Augsburg 2-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Bundesliga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 3.00 PPG (FC Augsburg) versus 3.00 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.795. Data: 1 FC Augsburg games / 1 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Augsburg 1.67 / Borussia Dortmund 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.795 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 September 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 2 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.97) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.42
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.75 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 3.00 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. FC Augsburg's scoring rate against Borussia Dortmund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 0%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC Augsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 0% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Augsburg's matches and 100% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.67 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 100%, Borussia Dortmund 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 3.00 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.