FC Augsburg 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 58% versus Bayer Leverkusen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Bayer Leverkusen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.734 / defence 0.939 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.929 / away 1.399. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 FC Augsburg games / 52 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Augsburg 1.39 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.734 / def 0.939 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.929 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 35% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.73x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.10x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.57
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.45
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.32
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.45 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 15W 11D 26L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 26W 10D 16L from 52 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 12W 6D 7L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.12 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 15W 11D 26L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 26W 10D 16L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for FC Augsburg, 72% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for FC Augsburg and 72% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Augsburg's games and 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Augsburg's matches and 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.45 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 37%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.