FC Augsburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Augsburg, 3 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended FC Augsburg 1–0 1899 Hoffenheim — a FC Augsburg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 61% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.917 / defence 1.224 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.324 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.996 / away 1.543. 1899 Hoffenheim have an above-average attack rating of 1.324, which lifts their away xG to 2.50. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output up. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 44 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 44.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 19% | 1899 Hoffenheim 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.42 | Draw 5.18 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.55 / 2.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% (last 10 away games).

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