Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Werder Bremen travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for Werder Bremen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 4–3 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and Werder Bremen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Werder Bremen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 3.12 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.260 / defence 0.856 | Werder Bremen attack 0.993 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.878 / away 1.332. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 3.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 20 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 76% | Draw 15% | Werder Bremen 9%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Werder Bremen 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (3.12 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 76% | Draw 15% | Werder Bremen 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 66% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 3.12 / Werder Bremen 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.260 / def 0.856 | Werder Bremen attack 0.993 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.878 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.12
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
66%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 76% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.26) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 3.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.68
9%
10.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
3 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.12
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
4.25
1.13
Werder Bremen xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.68
15%
Draw
10.60
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
4%
22.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 3.12 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.13 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 20W 17D 17L from 54 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 16L across 54 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.43 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 14W 5D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.78 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.42 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 62%, Werder Bremen at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 77% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 69% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 77% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Werder Bremen 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 3.12 xG and Werder Bremen 1.13 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Werder Bremen attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 76% | Draw 15% | Werder Bremen 9%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 52%, Werder Bremen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.43 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.