Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.10 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.35 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.845 / defence 1.040 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.788 / defence 1.655. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.299. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.655 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 27 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.35 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.845 / def 1.040 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.788 / def 1.655 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 66% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.84x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.66x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
66%
1.53
19%
5.18
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.42
1.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.53
66%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
1%
69.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.06 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 8D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.56 PPG from 27 outings (3W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 4W 4D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.08 points per game from 13 outings (0W 1D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.89 scored and 2.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 6D 18L in their last 27 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.23 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 62%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 77% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Eintracht Frankfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, as Eintracht Frankfurt and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.35 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 2.4 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.79 / defence 1.66, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 44%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.