Eintracht Frankfurt 1-5 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Frankfurt Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 52%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% versus Bayer Leverkusen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.13 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.993 / defence 0.833 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.385. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.680, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output down. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 65 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 65.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.38 | Draw 3.14 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).

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